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Opinion
Near-term (1-2 years)
January 14, 2026

The World Minus One Will Be a Mess

19 hours agoforeignpolicy

Summary

This article, discussing the potential decline of multilateral cooperation due to a shift away from global leadership, directly impacts the development and deployment of Artificial Intelligence by hindering the creation of internationally agreed upon standards, data governance frameworks, and ethical guidelines vital for responsible AI innovation. A world less willing to cooperate risks fragmenting AI research and development, leading to siloed advancements and potentially conflicting approaches to AI safety and regulation. This could slow progress and introduce unforeseen risks.

Impact Areas

risk
strategic
cost

Sector Impact

In National Security, the lack of global cooperation on AI could lead to an AI-driven arms race, increasing the risk of miscalculation and conflict. For Government & Public Sector, it could complicate the implementation of AI-powered public services across borders, leading to disparities in access and quality. It also increases the potential for AI-driven disinformation and cyberattacks, requiring governments to invest heavily in defensive measures.

Analysis Perspective
Executive Perspective

Operational impact: Businesses will likely face higher costs due to the need to comply with varying national AI regulations, potentially requiring separate AI models for different regions. Developing and maintaining AI systems for national security purposes will become more complex and expensive as countries pursue independent development paths, reducing the ability to leverage international advancements and collaborate on common threats.

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